2012 Week 3 Security of Supply Update

Outlook

Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could change quickly).

The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro catchment inflows.

Current Situation

Aggregate New Zealand storage has decreased over the last week.

Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 48% and 66% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 55% of total generation.

Hydro Generation Update

Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week have been higher than the historic average. Over the last week North Island storage has increased slightly.

South Island inflows have continued to be lower than average, however South Island storage has increased.

For further information see the Supply Data Hydro Generation Page.

Non-hydro Generation Update

Thermal generation is expected to increase with increasing demand and lower than average inflows in the South Island.

For further information see the Supply Data Non Hydro Generation Page.

Demand Update

Electricity usage within normal levels for this time of the year.

For further information see the Supply Data Electricity Demand Page.

Transmission Update

HVDC energy transfer was predominately from the North Island to the South Island last week. The total Net Transfer South was 33 GWh of energy being transferred.

For further information see the Supply Data Transmission Page.

Wholesale Prices Update

The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $69 MWh over the last four weeks.

For further information see the Supply Data Wholesale Pricing page.

Next Update

The next scheduled update is due Tuesday 31 January 2012.